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No. 15, Level 5-13, Persiaran Perdana, Presint 2, 62654 Wilayah Persekutuan Putrajaya
BERITA AGRIKOMODITI 2024
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KUALA LUMPUR: Crude palm oil (CPO) price is expected to start tapering off when the commodity's seasonal output recovery takes place.
Hong Leong Investment Bank Bhd (HLIB) noted that the CPO price had averaged at RM4,062 per tonne year-to-date.
Nevertheless, HLIB has maintained its CPO price assumptions for 2024 and 2025 at RM4,000 per tonne and RM3,800 per tonne.
"Palm oil stockpiles are expected to resume an uptrend from April this year, as production will likely remain on an uptrend due to seasonality.
"Meanwhile, exports are expected to weaken due to the absence of festive-driven demand and palm oil's weak price competitiveness against other competing oils," it said in a note.
At the time of writing, HLIB said the discount of palm oil to soy oil had narrowed to US$89 per tonne, down from the six-month average of US$245 per tonne.
As such, the investment bank maintained a "Neutral" stance on the sector, given the absence of notable demand catalyst.
HLIB's top picks are IOI Corp Bhd with a "Buy" call and target price of RM4.66, while Hap Seng Plantations Holdings Bhd with a "Buy" call and target price of RM2.06.
Palm oil stock level fell for the fifth consecutive month, by 10.7 per cent month-on-month (MoM) to 1.72 million tonnes in March 2024, the lowest since May 2023.
This is as seasonally strong exports demand more than offset higher output.
The stockpile came in lower than 1.76 million tonnes estimated in a Bloomberg survey, due mainly to stronger-than-expected exports.
Meanwhile, palm oil production resumed its uptrend (for the first time since Oct 2023), rising by 10.6 per cent MoM to 1.39 million tonnes in March 2024.
Cumulatively, first quarter of 2024 (1Q24) production increased by 3.4 per cent year-on-year (YoY) to 1.05 million tonnes, with fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yield and oil extraction rate (OER) rising to 3.5 tonnes per hectare and 19.66 per cent respectively.
This is up from 3.35 tonnes per hectare and 19.52 per cent compared to the same period last year.
This improvement is attributed mainly to the enhanced availability of labour, according to HLIB's assessment.
Meanwhile, HLIB noted that exports recovered for the first time since October 2023, rising by 28.6 per cent MoM to 1.32 million tonnes in March 2024, boosted by stronger demand ahead of Ramadan and Eid ad-Fitr festivals.
During March 2024, the sharp increase in exports was driven mainly by higher exports to India, Africa and Asia Oceania, according to Intertek Services.
Cumulatively, 1Q24 exports declined marginally by 1.6 per cent YoY to 3.69 million tonnes, due mainly to lower exports to China.
Intertek Services also indicated that Malaysia's palm oil shipment increased by 12.7 per cent MoM to 431,200 tonnes during the first 10 days of Apr 2024, led mainly by higher exports to Asia Oceania, European Union, and India.
Echoing similar views, CIMB Securities anticipates palm oil supplies will remain tight in April due to fewer working days and a reduced workforce during the Hari Raya holidays.
This, combined with higher usage of palm oil for biodiesel purposes in Indonesia is likely to keep palm oil export supplies tight until April 2024.
"We project palm oil stocks to fall by 13 per cent MoM in April 24.
"We are of the view that palm oil stocks could bottom out in April before rising in May due to the seasonal rise in palm oil supply and stiff competition from other edible oil substitutes (currently traded at a discount to palm oil).
"However, competition with sunflower oil from the Black Sea region could ease slightly in the near term due to higher shipment costs to transport them to Asia owing to the threat of Houthi attacks," it added.
CIMB also said in the second half of 2024 (2H24), palm oil supply could fall short of expectations due to the lower rainfall observed in some parts of the palm oil region since late Jan and the outbreak of sooty mold and mealybugs in Sabah palm oil plantations.
This can cause up to 30 per cent decline in FFB yields for the affected area.
It also said the anticipated transition from El Niño to La Niña (with a 60-80 per cent chance of development in 2H24) and the capacity to recruit foreign workers amid a current shortage of 40,000 workers will be crucial factors to monitor in the latter half of 2024.
CIMB has maintained its average crude palm oil CPO price forecast for 2024 of RM3,900 per tonne.
https://www.nst.com.my/business/corporate/2024/04/1038410/cpo-price-taper-once-seasonal-production-recovers
Sumber : New Straits Times
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KUALA LUMPUR/MUMBAI: Malaysia's palm oil stocks at the end of March dropped to their lowest in 10 months as a jump in exports offset a rebound in production, the industry regulator said on Monday.
The reduction in stocks in Malaysia, the world's second-largest palm oil producer after Indonesia, would help in supporting benchmark futures, which rose to a one-year high earlier this month.
Malaysia's palm oil stocks at the end of March fell 10.68% from the previous month to 1.71 million metric tons, their lowest since May, data from the industry regulator the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) showed.
Crude palm oil (CPO) production gained 10.57% from February to 1.39 million tons, while palm oil exports ticked up 28.61% to 1.32 million tons, the MPOB said.
A Reuters survey forecast March inventories at 1.79 million tons, a 6.65% decline from the previous month, with output at 1.38 million tons and exports at 1.23 million tons.
The MPOB report is bullish for the market, Anilkumar Bagani, research head of vegetable oils broker Sunvin Group said.
"The CPO stocks are depleting fast, and they could fall further by end of April. Malaysian output could drop in the first half of April because of Ramadan holidays, while exports during the period were higher than the last month," he said.
The CPO stocks at the end of March fell to 797,974 tons, the lowest since March 2022, the MPOB data showed.
As soybean oil exports from South America are set to increase in the coming months, palm oil exports could come under pressure, a New Delhi-based trader said.
This is because soybean oil is trading at a discount to palm oil, which will cap palm oil prices despite falling stocks, the trader said.
Palm oil is affected by price movements in related oils as they compete for a share in the global vegetable oils market.
Following is a breakdown of the Malaysian Palm Oil Board figures and Reuters estimates for March (volumes in tons): - Reuters
https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2024/04/15/malaysia039s-palm-oil-stocks-fall-to-10-month-low-as-exports-surge
Sumber : The Star
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KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysia's palm oil stocks at the end of March fell 10.68 per cent from the previous month to 1.71 million metric tons, data from the industry regulator showed on Monday.
Crude palm oil production gained 10.57 per cent from February to 1.39 million tons, while palm oil exports ticked up 28.61 per cent to 1.32 million tons, said the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB).
A Reuters survey forecast March inventories at 1.79 million tons, a 6.65 per cent decline from the previous month, with output at 1.38 million tons and exports at 1.23 million tons. - Reuters
https://www.nst.com.my/business/corporate/2024/04/1038010/malaysia-end-march-palm-oil-stocks-fall-1068pc-says-mpob
Sumber : New Straits Times
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KUALA LUMPUR (April 15): The crude palm oil (CPO) futures contract on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives closed weaker on Monday due to concerns over the rising output of the commodity, coupled with weaker demand.
Palm oil trader David Ng said the expectation of lower demand post-festivity weighed on sentiment despite the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) reporting lower stock levels last month.
“Hence, we see support at RM4,150 a tonne and resistance at RM4,300,” he told Bernama.
According to the MPOB, Malaysia’s total palm oil stocks dropped 10.68% to 1.71 million tonnes in March 2024 from 1.92 million tonnes in February 2024.
At the close, the spot month April 2024 contract slid RM93 to RM4,405 a tonne, May 2024 shed RM94 to RM4,277 and June 2024 lost RM78 to RM4,204.
The July 2024 note narrowed by RM69 to RM4,141 a tonne while August 2024 was lower by RM65 to RM4,074 and September 2024 dropped RM61 to RM4,021 a tonne.
Total volume increased to 90,982 lots from Friday’s 66,678 lots, while open interest was lower at 272,031 contracts from 267,644 contracts previously.
The physical CPO price for April South slipped RM50 to RM4,460 a tonne.
https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/708007
Sumber : The Edge Malaysia
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KUALA LUMPUR (April 8): The crude palm oil (CPO) futures contract on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives closed lower for the third straight day on Monday in line with the weaker rival soybean oil as well as palm olein futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange, which weigh on market sentiment.
“We see support at RM4,200 a tonne and resistance at RM4,400 a tonne,” said palm oil trader David Ng.
Meanwhile, Mumbai-based Sunvin Group commodity research head Anilkumar Bagani told Bernama the focus has shifted to the Malaysian Palm Oil Board's (MPOB) March data for exports, production and stock levels, which will be delayed than usual as it will be released on April 15 due to the upcoming Hari Raya holidays.
Citing the MPOB previews, he said the Malaysian palm oil end-March inventories are seen in the range of 1.69 million tonnes to 1.79 million tonnes.
Malaysia’s total palm oil stocks fell 5% to 1.92 million tonnes at end-February 2024 from 2.02 million tonnes in January 2024, the MPOB said last month.
At the close, the spot month April 2024 contract fell RM40 to RM4,514 a tonne, May 2024 erased RM41 to RM4,382 a tonne, June 2024 decreased by RM48 to RM4,295 a tonne, and July 2024 went down RM53 to RM4,220 a tonne.
August 2024 declined RM56 to RM4,142 a tonne and September 2024 dipped RM57 to RM4,077 a tonne.
Total volume fell to 67,914 lots from Friday’s 71,980 lots, while open interest slipped to 265,695 contracts from 268,274 contracts previously.
The physical CPO price for April South was RM40 lower at RM4,530 a tonne.
https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/707440
Sumber : The Edge Malaysia