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KUALA LUMPUR, Feb 14 ― Kenanga Research has forecast the price of crude palm oil (CPO) to trade range-bound and average around RM3,800 per tonne in a tight outlook for edible oils in 2024.

The research house said that with supply matching demand or possibly dipping into a small deficit, the commodity is expected to end the year with inventory coming in below the level it started at.

“The main issue is demand for edible oils which is underpinned mainly by population and income growth that is expected to continue growing at 3-4 per cent year-on-year (y-o-y), but supply is affected by tightening regulations, unpredictable weather and even geopolitical disruptions.

“Specifically for palm oil, Indonesia, the top producer and also user, looks set to manage exports till Hari Raya in April while India, a big palm oil importer, is likely to maintain generous levels of inventory pending an election in the first half of this year,” it said in a research note, maintaining a “neutral” call on the plantation sector.

RHB Investment Bank Bhd also maintained its neutral call on the plantation sector with the expectation of a higher CPO price environment in the first half of 2024.

The investment bank said it believes seasonally weaker output and the El Nino impact are anticipated to lower production in the months ahead.

“Although production is set to taper off in the coming months, export market demand may make a comeback in anticipation of the Aidilfitri festivities and restocking activities as stock levels should run down further. The anticipated stronger demand in the export market could lead to Malaysian palm oil stocks dropping below the two million tonne mark by next month, thus providing a boost to CPO prices,” it added.

Meanwhile, Public Investment Bank Bhd noted that despite the declining inventory trend, palm oil prices have remained range-bound in the last few months.

“Given the shorter working month in February, we expect inventories to fall below the psychological two million tonne level by end-February,” said the bank, which is also neutral on the plantation sector. ― Bernama

https://www.malaymail.com/news/money/2024/02/14/analysts-neutral-on-plantation-sector-with-crude-palm-oil-seen-averaging-rm3800-per-tonne/117962#google_vignette

 

Sumber : Malay Mail

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KUALA LUMPUR: BMI Country Risk & Industry Research (BMI), a product of Fitch Solutions Group Ltd, has made an upward revision to its forecast for the average price of Bursa Malaysia-listed third-month palm oil futures contracts in 2024 to RM3,750 per tonne from RM3,515 per tonne previously.

It said in a statement that in part, this reflects the subsequent persistence of price strength that started in the third quarter (3Q) of 2023, which saw contracts rose by 23.2 per cent between start-June and start-September.

At the same time, it said palm oil prices have more or less traded within five per cent of RM3,851 per tonne (+/- RM193 per tonne) since mid-2022.

Its revised forecast, however, does point to a softening of prices from its current levels through 2024, with palm contracts having traded at an average level of RM3,830 per tonne up to Feb 14, 2024.

"In the short term, we consider palm oil prices to be capped in light of price trends in the wider edible oils complex, expectations for large soya bean harvests in major producers and weak demand in China.

"Moreover, the impact of the El Niño event, now expected to dissipate between April and June 2024, on cultivation conditions in Indonesia and Malaysia is thought to be quite subdued," said BMI.

Meanwhile, the expected transition to La Niña conditions between June and August 2024 could weigh on market sentiment, testing price support.

BMI viewed that average palm oil prices would fall in 2025 relative to 2024, a reflection of a high base as well as the potential for a La Niña event to support oil palm cultivation, but at the same time have made an upward revision to its price forecast, now projecting that contracts would trade at an average level of RM3,500 per tonne.

However, it also reinforced the tail end of its price outlook in order to reflect a deceleration in the rate of palm oil export growth in Indonesia and Malaysia, which reflects the former’s commitment to higher domestic biodiesel blending mandates as well as a shift in oil palm production growth drivers in both markets.

"In our view, the world palm oil market will generate a production surplus of 2.0 million tonnes in the 2023/24 season, a three-season low.

"We forecast that this surplus will increase through the medium term, anticipating a surplus of 2.5 million tonnes in the 2024/25 season and season-on-season increases of 0.2-0.3 million tonnes thereafter," it said.

In terms of price, it maintained that average annual palm oil prices would decline through its forecast period, projecting mean prices of RM3,400 per tonne in 2026, RM3,300 per tonne in 2027 and RM3,205 per tonne in 2028.

Risk factors to its outlook include the development of biodiesel policies, the evolution of alternative edible oils’ prices and sustainable production efforts. – Bernama

 

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2024/02/20/bmi-revises-2024-forecast-for-palm-oil-futures-contracts-to-rm3515-per-tonne

 

Sumber : The Star

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SANDAKAN: It is 3pm and feeding time at the Sepilok Orangutan Rehabilitation Centre in Sabah.

Malim, a majestic male orangutan with distinctive cheek pads, shuffles confidently onto the feeding platform, where bananas, sweet potatoes and vegetables like long beans have been laid out by the centre’s staff.

To the excitement of about 50 visitors watching from about 18m away, Malim starts tucking in, unperturbed by a group of macaques that are also helping themselves to the food.

A female orangutan and her baby soon join them.

Feeding takes place twice a day at Sepilok and is a highlight for many visitors to the centre, a popular tourist spot in Sabah.

Located at the fringe of the 4,294-hectare Kabili-Sepilok rainforest, the centre started in 1964 to rehabilitate orphaned, injured, and displaced orangutans and return them to the wild.

The forest is home to an estimated 150 to 200 orangutans while the centre, operated by the Sabah Wildlife Department, currently cares for 42 of the great apes.

There is no guarantee, however, that visitors will get to see orangutans at feeding time – and for the centre’s staff, that’s a positive sign.

The feeding platform is a gateway between the centre and the forest, and the staff provide a limited and monotonous spread for the orangutans to encourage them to forage independently in the wild.

“The objective of this centre is for rehabilitated orangutans to be no longer dependent on us and to be free in the forest, where they can look for their own food,” said Mr Adrianus Tim Onong, a Sepilok officer.

The conservation and role of orangutans in Malaysia have come under the spotlight in recent months.

In May, plantation and commodities minister Johari Abdul Ghani said that the country should engage in “orangutan diplomacy” to counter bad press on palm oil and bolster relations with importers such as the European Union, India and China. 

The European Union last year approved a ban on imports of commodities linked to deforestation, which could hurt the palm oil industry. Malaysia has criticised the law, calling it discriminatory.

Palm oil has been linked to the destruction of orangutan habitats, and Mr Johari said Malaysia – the world’s second-largest producer after Indonesia – cannot take a defensive approach. 

Instead, it should show it is a sustainable palm oil producer committed to protecting forests and environmental sustainability, he said.

Inspired by China’s practice of sending pandas as diplomatic gifts to other countries, Mr Johari suggested giving orangutans to palm oil importers.

In 2023, the top importers of Malaysian palm oil were India (18.8 per cent), China (9.7 per cent), the European Union (7.1 per cent), Kenya (6.1 per cent) and Turkiye (5.8 per cent), according to the Malaysian Palm Oil Board.

The sector accounted for five per cent of the country’s gross domestic product in 2022.

But Mr Johari’s idea was quickly panned by conservationists as well as state officials in Sabah and Sarawak, the Malaysian states where wild orangutans are found.

 

 

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/asia/malaysia-orangutan-diplomacy-sabah-sepilok-palm-oil-conservation-endangered-apes-4453916

 

Sumber : Channel News Asia

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KUALA LUMPUR (April 15): The crude palm oil (CPO) futures contract on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives closed weaker on Monday due to concerns over the rising output of the commodity, coupled with weaker demand.

Palm oil trader David Ng said the expectation of lower demand post-festivity weighed on sentiment despite the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) reporting lower stock levels last month.

“Hence, we see support at RM4,150 a tonne and resistance at RM4,300,” he told Bernama.

According to the MPOB, Malaysia’s total palm oil stocks dropped 10.68% to 1.71 million tonnes in March 2024 from 1.92 million tonnes in February 2024.

At the close, the spot month April 2024 contract slid RM93 to RM4,405 a tonne, May 2024 shed RM94 to RM4,277 and June 2024 lost RM78 to RM4,204.

The July 2024 note narrowed by RM69 to RM4,141 a tonne while August 2024 was lower by RM65 to RM4,074 and September 2024 dropped RM61 to RM4,021 a tonne.

Total volume increased to 90,982 lots from Friday’s 66,678 lots, while open interest was lower at 272,031 contracts from 267,644 contracts previously.

The physical CPO price for April South slipped RM50 to RM4,460 a tonne.

 

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/708007

 

Sumber : The Edge Malaysia

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KUALA LUMPUR (April 8): The crude palm oil (CPO) futures contract on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives closed lower for the third straight day on Monday in line with the weaker rival soybean oil as well as palm olein futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange, which weigh on market sentiment.

“We see support at RM4,200 a tonne and resistance at RM4,400 a tonne,” said palm oil trader David Ng.

Meanwhile, Mumbai-based Sunvin Group commodity research head Anilkumar Bagani told Bernama the focus has shifted to the Malaysian Palm Oil Board's (MPOB) March data for exports, production and stock levels, which will be delayed than usual as it will be released on April 15 due to the upcoming Hari Raya holidays.

Citing the MPOB previews, he said the Malaysian palm oil end-March inventories are seen in the range of 1.69 million tonnes to 1.79 million tonnes.

Malaysia’s total palm oil stocks fell 5% to 1.92 million tonnes at end-February 2024 from 2.02 million tonnes in January 2024, the MPOB said last month.

At the close, the spot month April 2024 contract fell RM40 to RM4,514 a tonne, May 2024 erased RM41 to RM4,382 a tonne, June 2024 decreased by RM48 to RM4,295 a tonne, and July 2024 went down RM53 to RM4,220 a tonne.

August 2024 declined RM56 to RM4,142 a tonne and September 2024 dipped RM57 to RM4,077 a tonne.

Total volume fell to 67,914 lots from Friday’s 71,980 lots, while open interest slipped to 265,695 contracts from 268,274 contracts previously.

The physical CPO price for April South was RM40 lower at RM4,530 a tonne.

 

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/707440

 

Sumber : The Edge Malaysia